HCI – the next decade

Introduction
In this blogpost, we are going to review the evolution of computing and predict its future, with a focus on human-computer-interaction(HCI).


1. Computing has advanced greatly over the past 50 years
Over the years, computing has evolved greatly. Since the 1960s, we have experienced 3 "computing eras", as shown below:

                                   1. 1960s: Mainframe Era. One computer per many users.

                                   2. 1980s: Personal Computer Era. One computer per user.

                                   3. 2000s: Mobility Era. Several computers per user.

2. Computing has become part of our life
Computing has become more and more common in our daily life. With advances in hardware, computers have become significantly cheaper, smaller, more powerful and mobile. Invention and advancements in the Internet connects people around the world all together. Furthermore, wireless technology makes this connection accessible anytime, anywhere. One day without computer and Internet has become totally unimaginable for many people (for instance, any NUS staff or student).


3. HCI has to evolve to accommodate increasing necessity of computing
As computing becomes an necessity of life, HCI has to evolve to make computers easier and more efficient to use.
From punch card to text-based terminal to GUI, each step has made computing more intuitive and natural, thus allowed access to more people.

Since the invention of GUI, HCI(through keyboard and mouse-like pointing device) has not changed much over the decades. Keyboard and mouse are indeed convenient to use, but they are not perfect:

1. Problems often happen to long-time computer users such as backache, myopia and Repetitive Strain Injury have revealed that humans are not "designed" to use these devices.
2. People without computer knowledge or with disabilities often find it hard to use computers, even in GUI with modern mouse and keyboards. This obstacle has to be tackled if computing is to be accessible to everybody.

4. New technologies in HCI

Recently, advancements in HCI such as muti-touch technology and motion-sensing (a good example is Wii Motionplus) and their commercial application could be regarded as the prologue to the new era of HCI. These technologies are more intuitive to use and brings HCI to a new level.

5. Computing and HCI: a decade from now

Microsoft predicts that computing will enter "Ubiquity Era" in a decade. By then, due to advancements in cloud computing and computer hardware, each individual will be able to access huge amount of computing power, unconstrained by time or physical location. Computers will be significantly more intuitive to use, with the help of multi-touch, motion-sensing, gesture recognition and voice composing. Furthermore, development in AI and machine learning could start making robots part of our regular life.

                   

Display may go from flat panel to 3d, with progress in holography technology. Combined with gesture recognition and motion sensing, what we see in science fiction may come true.

Conclusion:
Computing will be more and more important and common. Gradually it will become part of our life. Everyone, from 2-year-old babies to 80-year-old senior citizens will be using computers. However, currently popular HCI such as mouse and keyboard will not suffice. Thankfully, progress in technology such as motion sensing, multi-touch, AI and machine learning will make HCI unbelievably intuitive and easy, so that it will become our second nature.